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 by DreadPirateRoberts |
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 by Shandonista |
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 by J. Peterman |
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April 07, 2008
Interesting poll in last week's New York Times.
"Americans are more dissatisfied with the country's direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll," the story said.
"In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed that ‘things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track,' up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2003.
"Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems."
Here's the kicker. At the very bottom of the story were these two sentences: "The nationwide telephone survey was conducted March 28 to April 2 with 1,368 adults. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points."
Now let me see if I understand this. The poll called 1,400 people out of about 200 million adults in the U.S. and they feel confident that they got an accurate sampling of the sentiments of the American public on something as complicated as the economy? Furthermore, they think their margin of error is only 3%?
I may have gotten a C in Father Wally's Statistics class, but something's fishy here.
CNN ran the New York Times story on their Web site and had their own poll, with a headline that read, "Most Americans say US on wrong track."
As of 9:40 a.m. EST Friday, 20,415 people had voted. Better than the 1,368 that the New York Times sampled, but still just 0.000102075 percent of the U.S. adult population (or so my calculator told me). According to CNN, 84% agreed the U.S. was off course, 16% disagreed.
(By the end of the day, 170,000 people had voted, but the ratios remained the same.)
Fox News, which is supposedly in the hip pocket of the Republicans, had a similar poll that said only 30% of Americans approve of the job that President Bush is doing. For that poll, they spoke to just 900 registered voters from March 18 to March 19. The poll has a margin of error of - you guessed it - three percentage points.
More interesting than the poll itself is the methodology, which is explained here.
Same thing happens in elections. The media proclaims someone the winner with a big checkmark, but then you look down in the corner of the TV screen and see in small print that 1% of precincts have reported. How can they predict a winner with just 1% of the votes counted?
I'm not sure there ever was a time when polls accurately measured "the will of the people." But it's clear that today researchers can craft a poll to say whatever the group that's paying for it wants it to say. All of which begs two questions?
Why do we have polls, and does anyone believe them?
Awaiting your answers here at The Eye.
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To ExPat:
Agreed and point well taken. Another draft would be disastrous for this country!
Apr. 07, 2008 2:56 PM
How much stock do you put in polls?
0% 18% 45% 36%
There's a saying that's worthwhile recalling this election year: Numbers never lie, but liars use numbers.
This might be controversial, but the deaths of U.S. servicemen and women in Iraq is currently 4,000. Terrible? Of course. Especially for the families. But in Vietnam we lost 60,000. In World War II, I think the average death toll was about 2,000 to 5,000 a day. In World War I, the death toll at one battle (the Somme) was 1,000,000. At Gettysburg, the casualty toll was 60,000 in three days.
Put everything in perspective and the death toll in Iraq barely qualifies the war as a footnote in the history of warfare.
Here in L.A. we have "storm watch" when the projected rainfall will be 1/4 inch. Quick, get the ark and save the animals, the storm is almost here! Run for your lives, the sky is finally falling.....
So why do we have polls? So the liars can use the numbers because, as we all know: the numbers never lie. Does anyone believe them? Perhaps people who want to be lied to, don't know the difference, or have a need to believe.
My favorite moment in politics is when any candidate wins by a "landslide". Of course, only 12 percent of the eligible voters were able to locate a polling station, but that doesn't matter. The candidate did win the "popular" vote.
One wonders what the will of the people truly is?
Thanks Mr. Peterman for this site. It seems like the only site where a civilized conversation can take place between "friends" on a variety of serious as well as fun issues. I wonder how many people on this site have ever been questioned by a pollster? I haven't.
reedd said...
I do believe the poll is correct. Whether or not the poll numbers are correct is a different story. The bottom line is right... most Americans disapprove of the way the country is heading.
I don't think that one can compare the casualty numbers between wars. WWII was a war we needed to fight. Vietnam and Iraq were political wars for the personal gains of politicians. I don't believe that the parents of dead sons and daughters would appreciate this comparison at all. The fact is, we are fighting this war now. And to most American it feels like it's not going to end soon. Then there are the Iraqi people who have perished. Those casualty numbers are much higher than the US soldiers. There is really no comparison with other wars when you're in the thick of THIS war.
Americans should be angry and displeased!
To reedd:
Your point point is well taken.
One death in Iraq is a disgrace. As a Vietnam veteran, the son of a World war II veteran who lost half his stomach, and the grandson of a World War I veteran who had numerous agonizing surgeries to remove shrapnel from his face and body, and now the father of a son who may fight in Iraq, I find this current war a total folly. I thought we were fighting "terrorists" in Afghanistan not disrupting the balance of power in the Middle East against are own best interests.
I think the fact that the death toll in Iraq relegates it to a footnote of a war is what makes it even more of a disgrace. In the future, these men and women will be forgotten. Already the government has failed the survivors who have returned. Many are homeless, unable to get work, suffering from PTSD, or facing yet another tour of duty in Iraq if still in service.
As long as the Vietnam War lasted I wasn't forced to do a second tour of duty. Of course, they had a draft to re-populate the battle field. Lets hope that this folly in Iraq doesn't bring the draft back.
reedd said...
To ExPat:
Agreed and point well taken. Another draft would be disastrous for this country!
more on the honor rollI once read that almost 90% of all statistics are entirely made up… or was it 86%? You could argue that the media, being the lovely people they are, only do polls to ignite a flame in their viewers mind or do them to create stronger ratings. Why else would MSNBC, CNN, ABC, FOX, CBS, Wall Street, Newsweek, CNBC and CSPAN conduct the same poll with slightly different results to match what their viewers want to see and hear… ratings!
Creating headlines like “Americans think that we are on the wrong track.†In my opinion we are on the wrong track, a deadly track, headed towards a station 3 miles past third world country. But that’s my view and I merely represent 1 of 200 million people. I find it curious that from each state we have Representatives and Senators sitting on Capital hill in Washington drawing their big money paychecks and enjoying their government employee health insurance deciding the future of our country, these few men in the House chambers and Senate vote on behave of all of us. They vote on opinion, they represent 200 million people and make a decision based off their “good†judgment and what will get them elected again. During and after hurricane Katrina I worked in Louisiana and conducted statistics for the Red Cross to try and figure out what was the main thing the evacuees needed to get them back on their feet. I polled only 1500 of 16000 people and with my fancy charts and complicated graphs I presented them to the Emergency management board at my areas shelter and they made a decision that impacted all 16000 people based off the views of 1500. Perhaps we need polls in everyday life, I am about to go get a cup of coffee! What do you think? Check one for yes and two to no!
HEY MATTOFYRK: YOU HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD BUDDY!! BY THE WAY...WITH OR WITHOUT CREAM AND SUGAR.
leahold30 said...
I'm too young to remember any war other than this one. There was Desert Storm, but we can hardly count that as a war; it was more of a conflict. As the mother of a young son I cringe every time I think about the subject of war. If my son were sent to fight for his country I would like to think it would be for good reason. I can't imagine how the familes feel that have lost their loved ones, when most people agree that we shouldn't even be there. I'll never understand how an attack from Afganistan turned into a war in Iraq. Seems like Junior is completing Senior's to do list.
to reedd:
Great conversation. It's good to have differences of opinion, but it's better to have an agreement on what's the right thing to do and then work on the solutions.
This is a great forum for intelligent and civil conversation. The November election will be the most important "poll". It will set the tone and direction of this country for decades.
Everyones' comments are "right on".