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April 25, 2012
The probability of meeting someone you know increases dramatically when you are with someone you don't want to be seen with.
And the probability that you're being watched is directly proportionate to the stupidity of your actions.
Furthermore, it’s a 37% chance you’re reading this and saying, stop joking around and get to the point.
The Law of Probability came about in 1856 when Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat and Antoine Gombaud asked a simple question, “Which is more likely — rolling a “6” on 4 throws of a dice, or rolling a double "6" on 24 throws with two dice?
You had to have been there.
The proverbial monkey on a typewriter? It is estimated, that one monkey hitting the keys once a second, will have typed, “To be or not to be” in about 20,000 years.
Thought you'd want to know that.
But the Law of Probability is one of our more essential human laws, which has a bearing on every decision we make.
Stockbrokers assess probable risk reward ratio and help us lose our money.
Our mind calculates that a restaurant that's full is probably better than the restaurant that isn't.
If the weatherman, for instance, says there’s a 70 percent of rain, you know what to do.
That’s right, leave it at home.
Probability is always a fascinating topic. The probability that I will have breakfast is 10...
Apr. 25, 2012 8:58 AM
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aryckman
04/03/11
There is a 100 percent probability that the line I get into at the drive-in bank will be the one that does not move.
There is a 100 percent probability that today's topic for discussion here in the Village soon will morph into food.
There is a 100 percent probability that the things I have on my to-do list for tomorrow will not get done.
97% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
There is a 100 percent probability that the person I must talk to as soon as possible and with whom I have been playing phone tag will return my call just after I have walked far enough away from my phone that I cannot get back to it in time to answer it before it stops ringing.
"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
Shelly Berman, a comedian from the 60's,and still, did a comedy album that had a cut on it about those self same monkeys..it went something like this: "here's one", "to be or not to be, that is the givornanplatz"...and so y'alls have another insight into my formative years of comedy training
The hardest part about the law of probabilities is determining with precision all of the variables, and assigning correct odds to them. Otherwise we merely compound our mistakes. Junk in, junk out.....
I predict that our late Wednesday afterschool meeting will yet again be about .........................nothing..................................
If I place three eggs on the counter, no matter what, one will in all probability roll onto the floor.
poor bebe~ those meetings!
That the odds will always tip (or seem to) in the direction of the sunny and tip away (or seem to) from the pessimistic is a fact… or seems to be, which is just as good.
Stoney ~ I like that...well said.
Probability is always a fascinating topic. The probability that I will have breakfast is 100% - I am eating it as I type. Actually they first made good use of probability theory and more specifically game theory in WW II in the Navy. They analyzed the probability of various routes for the Japanese Navy, picked the highest probability, found them, engaged them in the Battle of Coral Sea, and defeated them soundly. Recent studies have noted a difference between calculated probabilty and perceived probability. To most people, probability is perceived as either zero or 100% - I win or I lose. Telling someone that the probability of a lottery ticket winning is 1 in 7.2 million makes no sense to our minds. 0 or 1. It is interesting that the most brilliant mathematical minds seem to turn to statistics.
more on the honor rollAn acquaintence recently bought a boat, and renamed it. "Murphey's Law". His name/profession. Many tried to talk him out of the new name, for sea going tradition as well as superstitious reasons...we'll see about the law of probabilities...jg
hello, jacquelyne~ Is that the same thing as Sod's Law?
Statistical dead heats make for a little unpredictability and I try to avoid spoilers preferring a surprise ending. There is the good mess. THis morning I brought in my carload of boxes with notes, script, program and books & more than an armful of costuming and props and a noggin full of memories. The big show, LIFE, is never really over but there are scene changes. So during the blackouts we all prepare to enter as the set changes and soon it will be lights up again and again and again. Use what you know but never rule out the WAG (wild ass guess)
...nor the SWAG (scientific wild ass guess).
I promise I'm not joking. Some bright spark wrote an academic research paper on the probability of toast falling butter side down - and passed his degree.
Hazel, wasn't that Murphy? The founder of Murphy's Law? I always thought that was about toast.
I just checked - there's loads about it on Google.
I never studied statistics or probabilities. Just thinking about it gives me a headache. Oh, I can look at generalities and take my SWAG, but that's about it. One thing I am certain of is that weather predictability around the Great Lakes is laughable. The meteorologists need to pay more attention to butterfly wings or something. I thought they had much better luck when I lived in Minnesota. Without the lakes, the fancy computer algorithms had a 50% better chance of being accurate.
What I read about the toast from my Google search is that it is gravity that pulls the buttered side down. I take issue with this and agree with Stoney--I've found that my toast usually falls buttered side up. AKA sunny side up. :-)
I have to say what locally they call The First Law of Murphy--what can go wrong, will go wrong, holds pretty true. Nonetheless I am always stupefied if the toast falls butter side down.
Sod's law ?
I predict a high probability of the conversation turning to food.
So it is now official, my divorce from Sir Boyscout is finalized and I am a single woman again. I need all your recipes for best and easiest meals for one, and maybe some scraps for molly to eat afterwards. The only thing more depressing right now than being a childless 32 year old divorcee in a couple of pathetic dead end jobs, is the thought of leftovers.
jacquelyne~ The English version of Murphy's Law! Probably asscocited with an unladylike exclaimation made when the toast lands butter side down. If the floor is super clean, there is a chance it will land butter side up. I think cat hairs are some sort of butter magnet. I have a nice pyrex covered butter dish - if I forget to put the lid on, the cat will enjoy!
l marjorie~ you should do the lottery with luck like that - sunny side up!
What does this statement mean? "There is a 70% likelihood that it will rain today."
(1) It will certainly rain for 70% of the day. (No!)
(2) It will certainly rain today on 70% of the listening area. (No!)
(3) It will certainly rain later today in 70% of the parallel universes radiating from this point in time. (Huh?)
We accept that statement as meaning something, but I submit that it has to mean one of the three above, but can't mean either of the first two, and the third is untestable. Therefore it actually doesn't mean anything.
Haze, I do play the lottery, my luck doesn't run in that direction, unfortunately. You know what they say about luck and money.Notker, your statement confirms my thoughts on the "science" of meteorology.nachista, what a sad post. I'll dig around for some recipies. Chef Deb can probably help better than I can...
It is sad Marjorie, but it is over and done with now and I can't change it. Just have to accept it and move forward. I have this horrible inabilitiy to make meals with less than 4 servings, I blame growing up in a family with 6 siblings.
Notker that statment simply means the weather man is covering his bases, if you need rain for your lawn or garden you have hope, if you don't want rain then you have a smaller bit of hope. Everyone is covered.
Google cooking for one. There are a lot of good ideas out there.
NACHISTA--when you open your dishwasher and its all bowls and spoons, its time to re-assess. I still can't make less than a gallon of soup. But leftovers, clearly labelled and frozen can be a LIFESAVER! I have been cooking as usual but freezing half and its a lot better than Lean Cuisine.
Thanks deb...if my house ever sells I'll move in with my parents (it is a good thing, dad is almost 90 and mom is 71, they need a lot of help these days) and then I'll have a housewife to cook for me, until then I'm on my own. In the last 3 weeks I've eaten everything that was in my fridge that could spoil, last night's dinner was a microwave corndog and a string cheese. Now all that is in the fridge is condiments, juice, milk, eggs, and carrots. Freezer is fully stocked though, I bought a pig last fall and my parents bought a steer. Time to start playing meat fairy and giving what I can't use away...seriously one person shouldn't eat an eight pound pork shoulder roast by themselves.
Most everyone is familiar with Murphy's Law ... which states that, "Whatever Can Go Wrong, WILL ..."
But Murphy had a Cousin named, Finagle ... who developed his own postulate as sequel to Murphy ... and it says, "Whatever You Do To Try and Help the Situation Only Makes it Worse ..." Sometimes things certainly play out that way .......
Statistics are as deceiving as they are edifying ....... Figures Never Lie, but Liars Always Figure ... a favorite saying of my Uncle Edgar, who cringed when during a conversation, someone would pull out a pocket Calculator and start punching keys in staccato , to support his point with statistics ... or reduce some Amount to ridiculum to sell one thing or another ... "Can You Really Afford Not To Do This For Just Elevewn Cents a Day ???" That usually comes right before the, "God Forbid" speech that appears in every discussion about Insurance .......
Notker- I have asked my lovely bride the same questions concerning the percentage of rain fall chances and where they might be applied.
You addressed the questions I have asked almost to the letter.
My bride always replies, "You just be the only human being on this planet to question where the percentage will be and how allotted..." and now I will show her your response and know that I am indeed not alone.
This is so true! The only time I decide to go to the post office in my sweats, sans makeup and with Phyllis Diller hair...tall dark and handsome appears asking to break a five dollar bill for the stamp machine!
PS- update; since then I have been fluffed and powdered everytime I've stopped in at the post office...TDH has not been seen.
Penn - I usually run into someone I haven't seen in years who then tells me I haven't changed a bit......
Probability and Scientific conclusion would support that the Murphy bed is doomed...based purely on its name, it's off to a bad start. To be fair perhaps we should ask Dr. Ruth...
I've never been hit on the head by a Murphy bed.... best six out of four?
Penn, I've never used one, but knowing my luck the bed WOULD live up to its name. Better not risk it.
I just have bad luck. That's the way of it. Hehehe. Probability means the short end of the stick comes out 99% of the time, so if I don't expect anything, then it's a really good suprise! We can be thankful for the blessings we have.
Oh...my.. How do I love thee, "Oh, My hat" in JP's owner's manual. "Let me count the ways."
Like LOTLOT, I should come early, before your brains have gone to work; before that first cup of tea; before that second cup of coffee; heaven forbid before you find you're out of half-and-half; (whisperwhisper...) before you've Floyd A. Doggie out; before you let him back in; before you cuddle him, play with him, nuzzle him to reassure all's right the F.A.D world;before you write the belated notes and letters stacked on your writing desk awaiting your hand, your pen; before you begin an ending to the story half-begun it tricks into picking up where you left off...sometimes; before you add a stanza to your newborn poem still wet behind the ears; never mind it's a cinquain, anyone can write a cinquain and you feel, well, fulfilled when all fits; before you start the washing machine; before you toss'n'fluff the clothes now in said washing machine; before you lay out butter to melt for carrot souffle to take to a sick friend; before you check the calendar for who has an appointment where and when; before you call about the beach trip, the tripo to ATlanta; before my physical therapy appointment; before I decide what to wear to my PT appoinment they say "dress comfortably" but have you noticed how often one man's goose is another's gander? before you skim the local paper to learn how many murders the night brought forth; before you stop to read that a respected longtime judge, awakened in his home, shot and killed the intruder, and you think Well, THAT "stand your ground" law makes perfect sense; before, even, you muse about "stand your ground" laws and that you know a case where you'd have done the same were you not afraid to have guns in the house; before you pour Cheerios in your bowl; before you cut up strawberries and peaches for that cereal; before you pour mango juice and my gosh my tea is cold so warm it up; before you don sweatshirt and pants and find a tiny pebble in the toe of your shoe, no longer wondering why PT was painful to that foot the day before, another mystery raveled;
before you catch your self thinking now to proofreading, editing a book of poems for a friend....
By which time no one in te Village is up, save LOTLOT. Once only did I write an opinion so early -- because I couldn't sleep and was awake all night. I felt like fog that comes on "...little cat feet." Hush. Hush...Floyd snoozing on my feet. Cat tiptoing without sound 'TIL she finds my lap -- I dare not breathe, let alone figure probabilty.....
Six times removed, four times removed reads ever less like probability, more like kissin' kin.
LOTLOT< are you on our far wastern coast --or perhaps you just stay up late.
Georgia on my mind ~ way past duvet time here. Nos da, dear people. x
Georgia, I'm often up late working. Also often up early doing the same.
Hazel~ thanks!.. no, noi. Wait a minute...you said Georgia. Sorry.
Georgia, 905PM...what a wonderful remark...