Prester John may have been a myth, but the belief in him is said to have sparked the Age of Exploration and the Renaissance.
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kitonlove
03/12/11
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BJ Jones
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June 06, 2012
The Saints are a 3-point favorite. It’s a 23% chance it will rain tomorrow. The probability of meeting someone you know increases dramatically when you are with someone you don't want to be seen with.
And the probability that you're being watched is directly proportionate to the stupidity of your actions.
Furthermore, it’s a 37% chance you’re reading this and saying, stop joking around and get to the point, Peterman.
You just had to ask: the origin of the law came about in 1856 when Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat and Antoine Gombaud asked a simple question, “Which is more likely, rolling a “6” on 4 throws of a dice, or rolling a “double 6” on 24 throws with two dice?
It is quite probable they didn’t know, at that time, they were on the verge of one of our more essential human laws—which has a bearing on every decision we make. Like whether to take an umbrella in the morning, or deciding which life partner is less likely to be an idiot.
Speaking of playing the lottery, is it better to play 1-2-3-4-5-6 or just a set of 6 randomly selected numbers?
While all combinations are equally likely to win, you would be advised to not pick 1-2-3-4-5-6 or any other simple combination. If it does win you will have to share the jackpot with the multitude of other people who didn't read this post.
The proverbial monkey on a typewriter? It is estimated, that one monkey hitting the keys once a second, will have typed, “To be or not to be” in about 20,000 years.
Thought you'd want to know that.
Governments typically monkey around with probabilistic methods where it is given the distinguished name of "pathway analysis." A fancy label that analyses the probability of raising taxes 30%, and not having a full-fledged riot. Or taking into consideration the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict and using it as a shameless excuse to raise gas prices.
To help you become a better decision maker, here's a fascinating example of the law of probability that ran in a 1990 issue of Parade magazine.
"Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the other doors, ignores you and opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?"
Is it to your advantage to switch?
When the problem and the solution appeared, about 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhD's, wrote to the magazine claiming the published solution was wrong.
(Remember. All those PhD’s didn't look up the answer on the Internet.)
So it may help if you’re not a PhD.
Our probability specialists have figured about 16% of you might have the correct answer attached to the correct explanation and the probability is 83% I still won't understand it.
still thinking about today...
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03/27/11
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04/03/11
No matter what numbers you play in the lottery, there is a high probability you will not win.
If you are a PhD, there is a high probability you have a big college loan to repay.
Thankyou, dear people for all the 'Happy Birthday' greetings yesterday.
Hazel ~
You don't look a day older… probably because you have that lovable quality of appreciating where you are and what you have.
As to the big British party: I enjoy the horses.
I think it's in your advantage to switch, but then again I am often wrong...
Its a probability that I am not the only one missing BEBE...hope she's having fun!
Thank you for the warm welcomes...Belated birthday greetings to Hazel!!...& Long Live THE Queen!! What is the probability that Camella will never be queen but Darling Kate will?
I already have a car and would much prefer to get your goat. What are the odds?
I'd lay odds that we'll be on the topic of food before too long!
Don't worry Peterman, word people take a little longer to warm up to numbers… maybe a lot longer.
The combative robins are dominating the activity on the morning side of the sour cherry tree: the fruit is to tart, what the habenero is to hot… I tried it. I doubt anyone has done that twice.
Not ripe enough this early to fall or to be picked, sour cherries hang tough enough to be torn at and eaten bit by bit.
A few sparrows follow along to work on the opened ones and a pair of local cedar waxwings (my favorite birds for their stylish beauty and cooperative nature), work above the fray on vertical branches too fragile to support robins.
A gift, that tree and I am the only one who knows it.
It' a probability that the date is wrong...
In 1856, Pascal would have been 233 years old, Gombaud (chevalier de Méré) 249, and Fermat 255.
I would rather say 1654.
Probably, an old friend of mine, helps to learn to be a "good" loser instead of living against all odds. I dunno. Loren Eiseley in his beautifully written book about Francis Bacon, The Man Who Saw Through Time, remarks that Bacon: "...more fully than any man of his time, entertained the idea of the universe as a problem to be solved, examined, meditated upon, rather than as an eternally fixed stage, upon which man walked. Perhaps the "fix" is not in. It was Isaac Newton who shortly followed Bacon and who called himself a Baconian who said, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people. Ah yes, People the "wild card". Sherlock Holmes told Dr. Watson-How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth? Yes, Bacon once wrote that it was a high speech of Seneca (after the manner of the Stoics), that "The good things which belong to prosperity are to be wished, but the good things that belong to adversity are to be admired." There is only one sure bet and that is love sweet love.
Tommy is your discussion of Bacon a subtle way to segue us into food?
CD- You read me like a BLT.
Is anyone going to go to Ocean Downs Casino and Racetrack in Maryland to watch the Belmont Stakes on Saturday?
I haven't been there since before it became a casino.
Did somone (TOMMY< CHEF DEB) say bacon?
Put on some extra.
I'll be right there.
The probability in my life has always been Murphy's Law.
My skinny son cooked Calves Liver and Onions the other night. He has a good touch and it was delicious, but I still regretted his refusal to go to the store and get bacon to have with it. We will be having it again soon ChefMom style.
I thought it was the law. You have to have bacon when you have liver and onions.
of course it's the law of probability that 10,000 and 1,000 of them with PhDs will insist on bacon with liver and oinions. In what will you cook the liver and onions then in the bacon grease?
Dear Ivan, sorry. I guess that's a dish in which you cannot indulge.
Now look what you started, Tommy T. Has to be liver and bacon with onions.
Being in a sheep rearing area, we have had loads of cheap lambs liver for a few weeks. I have awful memories of liver at school dinners and thought I did not like it, what a great discovery to politely eat liver and bacon for lunch with a friend and find it was delicious,
I told you the odds were good we'd talk about food!
I don't have any liver here today but with the talk of bacon I've decieded on a grilled cheese with bacon on 12 whole grain bread.
CHEFDEB: I thought it was the Rule that Liver is to be Pan-Fried in an Iron Skillet, in Bacon Drippins, before it is smothered in the Caramelized Onions and Gravy , to warm for an hour or so ....... Side it with some crisp French Fries, and a WOP Salad, chased with a glass of Cold Buttermilk, and a Cathead or two, for soppin' ... and a Country Boy can work a purdy long time into the nite !!! A little Muntauk Pepper in the Cream Gravy perks it up considerably .......
I have never been a Gambler ... except on a Horse Track ... I can make a pair of Dice do just about anything I want them to, and have no trouble finding Little Joe ... but the first time I put Money down on the Pass ... the Mojo seems to disappear ... I Have made, a Buck or two playing Euchre, waiting to go on Watch, but thats about it ... I love to watch the Horses run, and enjoy the atmosphere around the Track .......
I am putting together all the Goodies for the Belmont Shindig, and I will start cooking early Saturday morning, so's it will all be Fresh for the Feast ... I'm doin' Oyster Loaves, Cole Slaw, 3-Cheese Macaroni n' Cheese, and a huge tub of Ambrosia, with all sorts of Fruit n' Nuts, Coconut, and a little room Temperature French Vanilla Ice Cream folded into it, and one 12 ounce Bottle of, Big Red !!! A delightful Treat ... Fruit Salad with overtones of Bubble Gum !!! And of course, we have twelve Cases of Iced Down Beer, to get us thru the weekend ... (Truck Beds have a myriad of uses, when lined with a Canvas Tarpolin and the Ice covered with a goodly layer of Road Salt ... )
I'm pullin' for, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER to Win the Triple Crown ... would be the first time in thirty-five years ... Odds are so crazy that it is hard NOT to bet on this Race ....... No Matter who Wins ...... the weekend celebration will be marvelous, filled with Friends & Family, Bocce, Horseshoes, Badminton, Volley Ball, and lotsa Good Eats !!! If my Horse Wins, y'all will hear me yell !!!
IVAN< RUSTY< KORTHAL< CAROL....I too thought it was against the law to serve liver without bacon.....what can I say? My son has been living in California. And as I said, we WILL be having liver again verrrry soon!
Go I'LL HAVE ANOTHER!!!!
Yum...liver and onions! But then, I have to be realistic....I am at my daughter's and they have lots of veggies (good) grilled, and chicken sausages or meat substitute. No wonder I have been eating wrong all these years...she is thin as a rail, and I, on the other hand, am not. Liver and onions with bacon and mashed potatoes, now there's a meal! the probability of my having meat substitute when I go home is zero, so there is a sure thing.
On probability, the lottery numbers never coincide with the ones on my ticket! Always wondered: Is there a better probability of winning if you buy more numbers? The ones for the bigMegaMilliions are now at $2 pe row of numbers, whereas they were $1 a row of numbers for a long time. The probability that the bread will land butter side down when you drop it is almost 90%....as is the trip down the stairs to the pantry...that you will have forgotten the item for which you went down there .
If the odds are even, why are they called that?
At least with bacon, it is easy to get past that jones which is more than can be said for too frequent references to a Skyline five-way or (shudder) lobster.